Trump Says Europe Is Dying — European Leaders Push Back as Birth Rates Hit Record Lows

When Donald Trump says Europe is dying, European leaders and media push back hard — but the data tells a different story. Europe's fertility rate currently stands at just 1.38 children per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The UK's rate is 1.44, and several countries, including Poland, are at 1.2.

The American Security Strategy, released in December 2025, warned that Europe faces "the real and more stark prospect of civilisational erasure" driven by falling birth rates, mass migration, and loss of national identity. Trump doubled down at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, declaring that Europe is "self-destructing" due to its inability to control immigration and foreign imports.

European leaders have hit back. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas dismissed Trump's claims at the Munich Security Conference in February 2026: "Contrary to what some may say, woke, decadent Europe is not facing civilisational erasure. In fact, people still want to join our club."

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also rejected the MAGA agenda, declaring: "The culture war of the MAGA movement is not ours."

The Data Behind the Decline

The European Commission projects that the EU's population, currently at 450.6 million, will shrink to around 398.8 million by 2100 — a decline of about 11.7%. By 2050, nearly one in three EU residents will be 65 or older, compared to one in five today.

According to an EU Science Hub analysis, if current trends continue, the EU will lose around 1.2 million working-age people every year until 2050 — and that's assuming migration continues at current levels. Without migration, that number would double.

But European officials argue that Trump is exaggerating. They point out that the US faces similar problems with a birth rate of 1.62, aging population, and political polarisation.

Even Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to acknowledge this at the 2026 Munich Security Conference, calling for co-operation between the US and Europe on a "generational challenge" of population decline.

The Political Fracture

As of mid-2026, widespread voter discontent is driving a significant shift in Europe's political landscape, with populist and far-right parties consolidating power across the continent. This surge is fuelled by weak economic performance, anxieties over immigration, rising living costs, and deep dissatisfaction with traditional political elites.

Following the 2024 European Parliament elections, populist, nationalist, and far-right parties secured roughly 36% of seats and established a formidable presence in national politics. Far-right or populist parties have topped polling or made significant gains in Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, and parts of Eastern Europe.

French President Emmanuel Macron now stands among the least popular leaders in the G7, with approval ratings in the low teens and disapproval levels near 75%. Many analysts consider a far-right victory in the 2027 French presidential election a plausible outcome.

Timeline: Trump vs Europe

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Trump say? That Europe is in terminal decline due to low birth rates, mass migration, and economic stagnation.

Is Europe's population declining? Yes, fertility is 1.38 children per woman. The EU is projected to shrink 11.7% by 2100.

What is Europe doing? Focusing on the longevity economy, AI productivity, women's labor participation, and older workers staying employed.

How have leaders responded? Kaja Kallas called Trump's claims false, saying Europe is not facing "civilisational erasure."

Is the US doing better? The US has a birth rate of 1.62, similar aging issues, and political polarisation.